Met Department projects increased rains from October as El Niño looms

EMILY KADZO - KNA

The Kenya Meteor ological Depart ment (KMD) has indicated that the country may experience above-nor mal rainfall from October as a strong El Niño event develops, raising the risk of wetter conditions extending into early 2027.

KMD has pointed out that there is an 81 per cent probability that the 2026 El Niño will be very strong and a 97 percent chance that it will persist into the first months of 2027.

Narok County Director of Meteorological Services, Stanley Kinyua, said the country is expected to tran sition from below-normal rainfall in the coming weeks to wetter-than-average conditions during the Octo ber-November-December short rains season.

Kinyua cautioned that the strength of El Niño alone does not determine the amount of rainfall Kenya will receive.

He explained that rainfall will largely be influenced by the Indian Ocean Dipole, in the nation. climate pattern in the tropical Pacific Ocean that develops every two to seven years and influences weather globally. a climate phenomenon caused by differences in sea surface temperatures across the Indian Ocean.

Depending on whether the IOD is positive or negative, it can either enhance or suppress the effects of El Niño over East Africa. Speaking during a meeting on an Ad Hoc Cabinet Committee on El Niño Preparedness and Response to coordinate Narok County’s response to the forecast moder ate-to-strong El Niño rains expected later this year, the official flagged flood and landslides hotspot areas of the devolved unit as Narok town, Mosiro, Ewaso Ngiro, Kilgoris and Nkareta. KMD projects below-av erage rainfall across much of western Kenya during the August-September-Oc tober period.

However, conditions are expected to change from October, with most parts of the country likely to receive above-av erage rainfall through November. Kinyua cautioned that El Niño is not rainfall itself but a naturally occurring El Niño has been linked to several major flood ing events in Kenya.

The country experienced one of its worst episodes in 1997-1998, when wide spread floods claimed lives, displaced thousands, and destroyed infrastructure. Other significant El Niño events occurred in 2006 2007, 2015-2016, and 2023 2024, the latter bringing heavy rains, floods, and landslides that killed hun dreds and caused extensive damage.

Kinyua said the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is likely to be positive.

“The 2015 was a very strong El Nino, close to 1997 but because the IOD was weakly positive, we did not experience as much rainfall as was experienced in 1997.The outcome of the season will majorly depend on the strength of the IOD.”

He said some areas have been affected by drought, compromising food security He said depressed rainfall is expected over the Western half of the country in August and September.

“Above average rainfall is expected over most parts in October and November,” he added. 

During August-Septem ber-October, depressed rainfall is expected over western half of the country while above average rains will be expected over most parts in September-Octo ber-November. Kinyua said El Nino will affect those in the informal settlements, floodplain communities, Asal commu nities, and those in riparian and wetlands.

Crops, livestock, roads, water systems, markets and health facilities will also be affected. He said floods become disasters because of weak drainage, poor sanitation, poor housing and weak infrastructure.

In Kenya, El Niño is most commonly linked to heavy rainfall during the October to December short rains season. by the abnormal warming of the Pacific Sea surface temperatures.

Narok North Deputy County Commissioner Joseph Merisho assured res idents that a multi-agency team is laying down ade quate measures in antici pation of the El Nino rains expected between October and December this year.

The administrator explained that the com mittee that is co-chaired had activated relevant State agencies and county departments in conjunction with the State Department for Special Programmes and humanitarian agencies to ensure that in the event of the forecasted rains they are not caught flatfooted.

He indicated that they had held discussions on mapping the internal resources available within committee members, mitigation measures, the relay of information to the public, strengthening inter departmental coordination, and identifying priority interventions.

Scientists contend that El Nino as part of a larger climate cycle is a naturally occurring climate phe nomenon characterized The World Meteorological Association warns that the El Nino climate phenome non could bring droughts, flooding, heat waves and displacement of people around the world later this year.

The international weather agency warned that the anticipated heavy rainfall could have far reaching consequences across many sectors including transpor tation, agriculture, health and infrastructure.

The national government has also activated an Ad Hoc Cabinet Committee on El Nino preparedness that will also support the devolved governments. Merisho stated that early preparedness and timely action remain essential in reducing the impacts of El Nino rains thus averting humanitarian crises and protecting livelihoods.

The Multiagency team will also coordinate farmer advisories to help cushion the agriculture sector from potential losses